Thursday, November 15, 2012

...and the Agony of Defeat

...
I feel your pain.
And it feels just like hope
We over here on the political left have been having quite a bit of fun watching the Republicans agonize over a fairly decisive if not overwhelming electoral defeat.  There was indeed something deeply satisfying in watching their smug certainty, even in the face of very clear evidence to the contrary, that they would finally be rid of this anti-American Chicago thug.  After all, everyone they talked to hated Barack Obama virulently, nobody they knew in their American Legion Hall or church congregation would vote for him - what possible chance would he have with the electorate at large?  And to see that certainty wiped away, so quickly and so completely that the denial many of thought would last for weeks actually lasted less than an hour.  There could be no cries of "voter fraud" or "stolen election" this time, as one by one the contested swing states all slipped away.  Seldom have I ever personally encountered the word "Schadenfreude" more often in the course of a single week.

And it really only gets better, as the national Republican party begins to come to terms with something we've all known was coming for years.  Every four years the population gets a little younger and a little browner and there just is no longer enough angry old white people to make a successful national political constituency.  So now we're hearing anguished cries from virtually all corners of the American Political Right that they have to find a way to soften their message and become more diverse and inclusive.  And I smile and think "good luck with that".

Now the hard political fact is that they COULD do this.  They could easily reduce their absolutist commitment to the wealthiest Americans and Corporations while still remaining friendlier to them than many Democrats.  They could back away from their commitments to social issues, from abortion and women's rights to gay rights and Church/State separation.  They could even moderate their positions on labor and immigration.  Sure, various factions of their coalition, primarily evangelical protestants and bigots, would scream bloody murder, but it's not like they're going to vote Democratic any time soon.  And while they might stamp their collective feet and threaten to create a third party, we can ask anyone from Ross Perot to Jill Stein how that's going to turn out for them - after a single election cycle they'll have their constituency back in place as if nothing ever happened.

But while these things are politically possible - the Democratic party has proven it time and again over the years by treating their left-wing base with contempt and still getting their votes, because people like me, while we would LOVE to see a more progressive President, are never going to facilitate the election of a bloated plutocrat like Mitt Romney or a reactionary fascist tool like John McCain - the Republican party has one specific reason why it cannot moderate its messaging.  The House of Representatives.

You see, there are three tiers of elections for national office.  There is a national election for President.  There are statewide elections for Senators.  And there are much smaller, district-level elections for Congresspeople.  Obviously, the national electorate includes the broadest set of political opinions, and includes a significant number of people who are ideologically left of center, or at least left of the Overton Window.  At the statewide level, the electorate tends to be more partisan, with some states much more blue overall, like California and Massachusetts and New York, and others, more rural and less densely populated much more red.  But a congressional district is a different kind of thing.  A large metropolitan area may include three districts, while vast agricultural and rural portions of a state might have fifteen.  The way America's population is distributed, and particularly the broad differences in diversity, tolerance, education and religious conviction between the big cities and the great hinterlands, essentially creates a condition where the median congressional district is significantly more Conservative than a larger sampling would be.  In a large percentage of these districts, the people demand an extreme-far right ideology in their representatives - this is the home turf of the "tea party".

So in order to start to back away from their more extreme wing in order to begin to appeal to Latinos, to educated Americans and to people who care about the environment and the poor, the national Republican party would have to repudiate the policies of their own Congressional caucus, which would lead to an incoherent and chaotic political message that could never get out of its own way long enough to win an election.  The party is, in essence, being held hostage by a political base that can never again be large enough to win national office, and yet their message is one of bigotry and exclusion.  It's a genuine challenge to which there is no easy solution - for which we can thank our lucky stars.
...

21 comments:

  1. Imma get in here before thunder...

    After all, everyone they talked to hated Barack Obama virulently, nobody they knew in their American Legion Hall or church congregation would vote for him - what possible chance would he have with the electorate at large?

    LGM has a post up about the Republican Party Chair in Maine using just this argument to claim voter fraud...after all, nobody in town knows any black people, so where did the "hundreds" of black people come from?

    And then he voids his own argument by claiming that he has a couple of black friends that he plays basketball with.

    Notwithstanding that he is a fat white dude, for whom "playing basketball" might very well mean "...on XBox". It can be supposed that these putative black friends did not vote in town, or something.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Watching the non-stupid Republicans try to thread this needle is going to be a fascinating study in words words words.

    Because their only electoral success is predicated on tribal hatred and divisive nationalism, and the people that elected these wackaloons to the House either don't or refuse to understand that real power doesn't stem from Congressional district constituencies...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also, it is hilarious to look at some of the gerrymandered districts. The idea of 'contiguous' parcels has been seriously warped....

      Delete
  3. Here's an article with some of the wackiest gerrymandering.

    http://pjmedia.com/zombie/2010/11/11/the-top-ten-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts-in-the-united-states/?singlepage=true

    Ignore the PJ media home, and the Zombie therein is No Relation.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Also, I just need to mention that your post illustration looks like a Weeping Angel and is creeping me right the fuck out.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Deny all you will, zrm, I'm damn sure upper case Zombie is at least your brother-in-law.

    "The ecstasy of agony & the thrill of deceit."



    ReplyDelete
  6. Could be. My B-I-Ls are all conservative jerkwads too.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I know absolutely nothing about this whole Dr. Who phenomena, but lately just about everything I have to look up on the Wackypedia turns out to be a Dr. Who reference. I don't understand why we can't all agree to stick to Buffy and Resident Evil references...

    ReplyDelete
  8. Well, Dr. Who, being in possession of a time travel device exists everywhere at once, so it kind of follows....

    Also, the Weeping Angels are kind of the scariest thing I've ever seen on a screen. And I am a fracking connoisseur....

    ReplyDelete
  9. Does he hunt Hadrosaurs in his leisure time? 'Cause if he doesn't he's blowing it...

    ReplyDelete
  10. This season, there was an episode entitled "Dinosaurs on a Spaceship."

    Spoiler: He does not hunt the dino, he rides it though; although he does terminate the humanoid in the episode with extreme prejudice; the humanoid deserved it WAY more than the dino.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Von used to like Doctor Who. Remember Von? I have posts of ancient lore that talk of Von....

    ReplyDelete
  12. Yeah - I saw her somewhat dramatic "goodbye cruel world" post. I don't get it. If I've learned any lesson in this world it's that you don't paint yourself into a corner. Lots of people are willing to set up an L-Shaped ambush with machine guns on either end of the kill zone and det cord in the depressions you might dive into for cover - um, wait, where was I?

    Oh yeah. If you don't wanna post, just don't post, y'know? It's YOUR blog - you don't owe anybody any certain amount of bytes. Say what you want to say when you want to say it. As soon as you say "that's it, no more from me", if you find in two weeks you have something you want to say you can't say it without looking like a goob.

    That's right, a goob.

    You say "going dark for a bit" and just that easy, you have the freedom to come back anytime you want. But Von always seemed to push hard against the easy way. That's not always admirable...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But Von always seemed to push hard against the easy way. That's not always admirable...

      OK, I definitely understand what you said. But, and this isn't defending Von, sometimes resisting the easy way is how you find your Way.

      Delete
    2. Oh yeah. If you don't wanna post, just don't post, y'know?

      No. I don't know. I've never done anything of the sort.

      I also have NEVER capriciously moved my blog from point to point, and whined when nobody followed me around. NEVER.

      Delete
    3. Sometimes it's necessary. Sometimes it's just hiding. I'm not one to choose who's doing what to who, but the guy who rips off his jacket and demands "hold me back or I'll hurt this fucker" is fulla horseshit, and the easy way might be to hit him with a beer pitcher and it might be to shrug your shoulders and walk out the door into the night...

      Delete
  13. It's YOUR blog - you don't owe anybody any certain amount of bytes. Say what you want to say when you want to say it.

    Gosh, maybe I ought to try that.

    ReplyDelete
  14. You DO, however, owe a certain amount of bytes to a good hot dog. One with onions and sharp, grainy mustard and a righteous natural casing that goes SNAP when you byte it. Relish is ok, but no kraut - that's just nasty...

    ReplyDelete