Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Polling the Chicken Little Demographic

...
The sky, believe it or not, is very likely NOT falling
American Democrats are weird.  In a not-good, annoying sort of way.  There was a presidential debate last week.  You might have heard about it.  Mitt Romney was more aggressive, more active, and worked had to get outside the "severely conservative" box he has been locked in by the distrust of the tea partiers.  President Obama was more passive, didn't counterpunch and generally had the debate performance predicted of him - competent, adequate, nothing more.  So at the end, the general consensus was that Romney had outperformed the President, and it could fairly be said that he "won" the debate.

Now this should have been news for about 24 hours.  A single debate in a year-long campaign matters, at least to some extent, but it cannot be a game-changing event.  Unless it brings about a large-scale Democratic freak-out, a week long rending of garments and dire predictions of the collapse of the Obama campaign into rubble and dust.  And so the media did what they do, reporting on the debate and the reaction in typical horserace fashion.  The Republicans crowed that their candidate had mopped the floor with the President, and he had turned the whole election on its head in two hours in Colorado.  Meanwhile, Democrats, from politicians to pundits, roundly cried and wailed that Romney had mopped the floor with Obama and turned the whole election on its head in two hours in Colorado.  The media, acting in its preferred role as stenographer to the stars, duly reported that Mitt Romney had mopped the floor with Obama and turned the whole election on its head in two hours in Colorado. Cause and effect.

So people watched the news, read the blogs, and talked to each other about the news and the blogs.  And based on the media reports of the reactions of partisans on both sides, they "knew" that the debate had been an epic disaster for Obama and a stunning turn-around win for Romney.  But the key here is that they got this information not from the event itself, but from media reports of unified Republican certainty of their candidates fabulous performance and unified Democratic certainty of their own candidate's epic failure.  And when the pollsters came calling, they knew the answers to the questions, and as the poll results trickled out that only fed the coalescing conventional wisdom on both sides.

But here's the thing - absolutely nothing has changed.  Romney is still Romney, an unlikable buffoon who will say anything for a chance to grab power.  Obama is still Obama, a centrist technocrat and at the very least a competent government executive.  Romney's policies are still deeply unpopular - voucherizing Medicare, deep tax cuts for the wealthy, reducing financial, environmental and food safety regulations, slashing government services and starting wars.  Romney still has the mostly discredited Paul Ryan as his running mate.  Obama is popular and trusted, while the people view Mitt Romney with skepticism and even outright antipathy.

It's about a month to the election.  There will be more events, and more reactions, and the media will play each of them up, as if it is the biggest event in the campaign, rather than just another day in the 24 hour news cycle.  But in the end, the American people will reject Mitt Romney, as they reject the extreme Republican ideology.  We all lived under the loathsome GW Bush for 8 years, we know where that got us, and we have collectively internalized that lesson.
...

13 comments:

  1. I could possibly hold my nose and vote for a centrist techocrat.

    But Centrist Technocrat would be an improvement for President Drone Strike. That Overton Window keeps moving to the right, and it isn't just because the Republicans are pulling the right edge.
    ~

    ReplyDelete
  2. mikey, I refer to it as the Democratic Fainting Goat act.

    Andrew Sullivan and Tweety have been HILARIOUS in their rending of garments. But when the crosstabs on those polls are shown, it can be seen that the respondents were overwhelmingly white and over 50, which is not representative of the likely voters. when the various demos are analyzed separately, little movement shows up, as you say.

    It is as if a good performance (finally!) from Willard got the wingnuts so excited and eager to respond to pollsters.

    Amusingly, remember TWO weeks ago, when the polls showing Obama ahead were being decried as biased and corrupt? And now they are sacrosanct.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Also, For your consideration:

    "The President rains murder through robot death drones on Pakistan, Yemen, and elsewhere. And yet Romney has no problem with that part of Obama's actions."

    "if the Rude Pundit were a citizen of any other country, he'd be fucking chilled to the bones to hear a major party candidate in the U.S. say, "[I]t is the responsibility of our President to use America’s great power to shape history."


    Less-shittism does, actually result in LESS SHIT.

    The Overton window moves because the racist violent greedy motherfuckers are all over on the right side of the room pulling the FUCK out of it as the Kocks are busily removing the wall so it can move farther, while the left are scurrying around on the other side of the room, hiding under the couch, and comparing puppet heads, smugly comparing moral purity scores. When they're not actively trying to destroy their own candidates.

    ReplyDelete
  4. If you are a single-issue voter, and your issue is the US Government's murder of various people in various nations around the world, and your choice is between Barack Obama and Willard Romney, I find it somewhat bizarre if your choice is Willard Romney. Is that based on the fact that at this very moment his body count is lower than Barack Obama's? Is there ANY reason to believe that after four years in office that would remain the case?

    Oh, but mikey, they coo softly, I'm not voting for Mitt Romney. I'm voting for Jill Stein. I can only shake my head. It's a TWO PARTY SYSTEM. Can you count to two? The Muslim from Kenya plus the plutocrat from Bain equals TWO. The powers (some call them the "Banksters", that's perfectly fair) are NOT going to allow some liberal from an unapproved party to win the Presidency. So if enough people who are too ideologically pure to care about their own well being and that of their neighbors cast a self-satisfied vote for Jill Stein or some other dufus not named Obama or Romney, then along with a judicious dose of voter suppression that puts Romney over the top.

    And then we'll hear how terrible it is that Romney is killing all these Iranians and Israel is using American weapons to destroy the Palestinians and Americans are rounding up and torturing Yemenis and Libyans and Pakistanis. And it will be too late...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Oh. And the overton window moves to the right because FUCKING RICH PEOPLE OWN THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM! This really isn't terribly difficult - they don't even TRY to hide it any more. All of these policies serve only to benefit the wealthy and the corporations and to further cement their control of the system.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If you are a single-issue voter, and your issue is the US Government's murder of various people in various nations around the world, and your choice is between Barack Obama and Willard Romney...

    REALLY?

    Imagine that the U.S. electorate, after the horror of Bush-Cheney, finally managed to finally get off the floor and elect themselves and epic majority of Democrats and a Democratic President.

    And then that Democratic President says, woohoo!, I can just ignore the Constitution like a Republican, spy on everybody I want, and charge any schlubs with the courage to point out that the government is lying to everybody with espionage. And I can order the assassination of any American citizen I want, because War On Terror.

    And I can call the War in Afghanistan "The Good War" and even people who completely disagree will make excuses for me.

    And people who acknowledge that FUCKING RICH PEOPLE OWN THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM! will, having had that viewpoint reinforced a ZILLION times by my first 3 3/4 years in office, none the less insist that a vote that isn't for me is meaningless.

    Dudes, you are brainwashed.
    ~

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If I am brainwashed, it is entirely against my will. So please help me by actually stepping up and answering a couple questions:

      1. Do you believe Jill Stein can be elected President of the United States?

      2. Do you believe ANYONE besides Barack Obama and Mitt Romney can be elected President of the United States?

      3. If you believe Jill Stein or another third party candidate can be elected president, please provide a brief explanation of why you believe this is possible.

      4. Do you genuinely want to see Barack Obama defeated, or is it more just an issue that you don't want to contribute to his re-election?

      5. If you want to see Obama defeated, do you actually acknowledge that this would make Romney the President of the United States for at least four years? As someone who expresses deep concern over foreign interventions and social security and medicare cuts, why would you think this is a good thing?

      I'll be honest, Thunder. I don't expect you to answer those questions. NOBODY from the "I'm voting for Jill Stein because she's not a murderer" school has ever been willing to address the most basic consequences of their desired outcome, except for a few loonies over at TBogg who think things will be SO AWFUL under President Romney that they will, in the end, bring forth a new liberal dawn of peace, freedom and ponies in America.

      Delete
    2. mikey, why don't you principled pragmatists ever answer this question: "How is that voting for the lesser evil thing working out for you?"

      You're about to vote for a guy who's done more to get Social Security cut than any Republican since FDR create the program (the most successful government program ever).

      A guy who has addressed the issue of innocent civilians being killed by drone strikes by redefining the definition of militant: "Someone we kill with our drone strikes."

      A person who has taken the horrible Bush-Gonzalez DOJ and managed to make it even worse (passes for banksters and torturers, espionage charges for journalist and whistle-blowers).

      And yet you demand: Show me how not voting for this will make it better!

      YOU FIRST!

      Tell me how voting for this shit yet again will make it better?

      Frankly, listening to a lecture from the lesser evil crowd is like taking a lesson in the Two Knights Defense from someone who has never managed to win a game of checkers.
      ~

      Delete
  7. And then that Democratic President says, woohoo!, I can just ignore the Constitution like a Republican, spy on everybody I want, and charge any schlubs with the courage to point out that the government is lying to everybody with espionage. And I can order the assassination of any American citizen I want, because War On Terror.

    There are many people who predicted just such a thing, and that was why the expansion of powers pioneered by GWB through signing statements and the Patriot Act were bad things to be opposed. And those people were not completely astonished to find a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress actually doing those things.

    Of course, at an elected level, all it did was get Russ Feingold booted.

    Face it, thunder, America LIKES war toys and war games, as long as it is Over There. and the poors are doing the fighting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Schrödinger's cat.

      Coming soon to a blog near you: Schrödinger's Principles.

      (Things the lesser evil crowd claim to believe in, and whose existence is proved when they nonetheless vote against them.)
      ~

      Delete
  8. I don't think we are claiming it will make it better in and of itself, thunder.

    At least I am not.

    But if you EVER thought voting for somebody was all you ever had to do to make change happen, you are the one who is fooling yourself.

    Look, I know you think I am an ignoramus brainwashed sellout. So why do I argue with you about this? You are just as hidebound and blinkered.

    I already made my protest vote in 2000, because I bought the Michael Moore/Noam Chomsky line in trying to expand voting options. Made not one shit of difference, at least in Wisconsin; but when combined with other states, it resulted in Dubya. Yeah, THAT worked out fucking wonderful. All that shit you rail about? The war and spying and banksters and drones? ALL OF IT enabled by the Dubya-Cheney Crime Syndicate.

    Working out great, that fucking is.

    How will it make it better? It won't. But it will make it FAR FAR LESS FUCKING WORSE than the other direction.

    Mock it and belittle it as less-shittism all you want; condescend and go off-topic. But when it comes to people who have health insurance now that weren't able to before; when it comes to finally getting troops out of Iraq; when it comes to gay people being able to marry and serve their country; when it comes to wars that WON'T be started in other countries; all of that "lesser shit" makes a big fucking deal to actual human beings.

    THAT'S what I am voting for.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Tell me how voting for this shit yet again will make it better?

    This.

    Now it's your turn.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Here's the reason people keep "lecturing" you. We all agree that the choice is between two evils. Yet you keep insisting that the strategy of choosing what even YOU acknowledge is the LESSER of those two evils is somehow destructive or illogical. And to make it even worse, you advocate a course of action that contributes directly to the success of the GREATER of two evils. And you refuse to either acknowledge that's true or explain why choosing the GREATER of two evils is somehow going to improve issues you care about.

    How's it working out for me so far? Pretty damn good, actually. Unless you think that John McCain and Sarah Palin would have protected social security and reduced american military actions.

    You're about to vote for a guy who's done more to get Social Security cut than any Republican

    That's just flatly untrue and I defy you to provide any evidence. I can prove it false with two words. George. Bush. Set out explicitly to privatize Social Security. Obama has TALKED about a grand bargain that might include some benefit cuts. I don't want to see that happen, but if you're doing all this Obama trashing on the basis of outright falsehoods it's pretty bad...

    ReplyDelete