Tonight There's Gonna Be a Jailbreak

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Chen Guangcheng - Chinese
Anti-Abortion Activist

Dissident Chinese activist  Chen Guangcheng snuck out of his house and village, where he was being held under heavy surveillance in a form of extra-legal house arrest, escaping to the US Embassy in Beijing, where it is rumored he has been offered diplomatic protection.  This is an extraordinary example of political courage from an administration not generally noted for its willingness to take political risks.  The potential for this event to blow up in America's face is quite possibly greater than the likelihood that it will end well.  In the still-roiling aftermath of the Bo Xilai scandal, and with SecState Clinton and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner due in Beijing next week for economic talks, the Chinese could very well decide to dig in their heels and turn the struggle over Chen's freedom into something larger.

First, prepare for a lot of right-wing chest beating and China bashing over this.  Mitt Romney, in particular, seems to view international competition through a sort of Cold War lens, full of alarmist pronouncements about the "Communists" and even the occasional reference to The Soviet threat.  But when you hear the American Political Right holding forth on the lengths we should be willing to go to protect freedom and democracy loving Chinese like Chen, think about this.  Suppose Bradley Manning had sought refuge in the Chinese Embassy in New York, and the Chinese Government had chosen to openly support him, demanding he be allowed to leave the country under their protection.  What would true-blue Americans have to say about that, do you suppose?


But beyond that, think about how this all might play out.  The Americans are bluffing.  They HAVE to be - they have NO cards to play.  They cannot move Chen off Embassy grounds without an agreement from the Chinese that they will allow it.  They might choose that course, just to avoid the problems and the international hue and cry.  But in light of current events, it's not at all clear that's what they will do.  They could just refuse - demand the US turn over the Chinese "criminal" and station police at all the embassy gates.  In that case, the situation is untenable - Chen has merely traded one house arrest for another, and to the US diplomatic mission, he is an albatross tied around their necks, becoming an item for negotiation in EVERY discussion - economic, diplomatic, regional, in Beijing, Washington and at the UN.


So here's to the Obama government for being willing to take a pretty large risk.  It's good for them to learn that with power comes a certain political exposure, and there are times when doing the right thing is simply not the same as doing the expedient or safe thing.   A lesson, unfortunately, that will be reinforced if the L'Affaire de Chen goes all pear-shaped on them...
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